[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebound on June 9 but resistance remains, with bright US May non-farm payrolls data prompting Trump to call for an interest rate cut

SMM Nickel News on June 9:

Macro News:

(1) On Friday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. The average hourly earnings in May increased by 0.4% MoM, higher than the previous 0.2% and the expected 0.3%, and up 3.9% YoY, higher than the previous 3.8% and the expected 3.7%. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% from 62.6% the previous month. Trump commented on the non-farm payrolls data: "The employment data is impressive, and the stock market is soaring!" He once again called for Powell to cut interest rates by 100 basis points.

(2) According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2025, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY (the same hereinafter). Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. In May, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. Exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, down 2.1%.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price was 122,600-125,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,900 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of mainstream Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was -50-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) has recently shown a rebound after overselling. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 122,850 yuan/mt, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.58%. The recent decline in domestic nickel inventory, coupled with bears reducing their positions and exiting the market, were the main driving factors. However, the resistance level at 123,000 yuan/mt has not yet been breached.

Positive signals have been released from China-US economic and trade consultations. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are diverging, but the weak demand situation is difficult to improve. The supply surplus continues to suppress the upside room for nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.